Who could replace Justin Trudeau as next Canadian PM?

Ottawa, Jan 8 (IANS/WISHAVWARTA):- The race to be Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s successor began on Tuesday, a day after he resigned amid a looming trade war with the US and a divisive political climate at home.

With the incumbent Liberal Party slumping badly in the polls, whoever wins the leadership contest could find themselves in opposition after the votes are counted, tasked with rebuilding the party.

US President-elect Donald Trump ally Elon Musk has thrown his support behind Trudeau’s rival, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, for Prime Minister.

Justin Trudeau’s announcement that he will step down in the coming months means Canada’s Liberal Party needs a new leader. With the government likely to fall when Parliament returns in March, the party will be keen to put someone in place as soon as possible.

The party’s national board is due to meet this week to begin the process, which in the past has taken months. Polls indicate the Liberals are on track to lose the election no matter who leads the party, which may put off some potential candidates. In the meantime here’s a look at some of the people who may throw their hats into the ring.

Historically, the party has almost exclusively drawn its leaders from Ontario and Quebec, but three of the possible candidates — Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney and Christy Clark — all have ties to western Canada, which could expand the party’s appeal in a region-dominated by the Conservatives.

Chrystia Freeland

The former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister is regarded as having triggered Trudeau’s resignation announcement by making her own three weeks ago. Once a key ally of the Prime Minister, she stepped down over disagreements with him about how to deal with the incoming Trump administration’s threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian goods and services.

In her resignation letter, she was scathing, warning Trudeau against “costly political gimmicks” and warning that the country faced “a grave challenge”.

Freeland has established herself as a reliable and longstanding member of Trudeau’s Cabinet since he became PM in 2015, serving in several Cabinet portfolios including foreign affairs and international trade. She is known for deftly renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with the first Trump administration, which secured Canadian access to the US market despite Trump’s politics.

The former journalist is seen as a frontrunner in the race to replace Trudeau.

Mark Carney

The former Bank of England and Bank of Canada governor has long been floated as a potential cabinet minister, with Trudeau confirming in 2024 that he had been encouraging him to enter federal politics; indeed, relations between Freeland and Trudeau were also understood to have deteriorated amid allegations he wanted to replace her with Carney.

In a statement on Monday, Carney, 59, said he would be “considering this decision closely with my family over the coming days”. His economic credentials at a time of global economic crisis are seen as an asset by some but there is some scepticism about his bid, given he has never held political office before.

Tradition dictates that Carney, now chair of Brookfield Asset Management, would need to secure a seat in parliament in order to take office if he won the party leadership.

François-Philippe Champagne

Champagne has served in a number of top cabinet positions since 2018 including foreign affairs and is now the minister of innovation.

He has often been characterised as an “Energiser bunny” and credited with landing several lucrative deals for Canada, including a C$2.8bn deal with Stellantis to boost EV production in Canada and a C$7bn project with Volkswagen to build its first gigafactory outside Europe.

That business acumen as well as his reported charm and optimism could serve him well in a Liberal leadership role. He was also born in Quebec, a province that has often been key to winning federal elections.

Melanie Joly

Just weeks before Trudeau’s resignation announcement, a US media outlet declared in a lengthy profile piece that the Foreign Minister was a “top contender” to replace him. Its publication forced her to restate her support for the Prime Minister, although she would not explicitly deny her leadership ambitions.

An Oxford-educated lawyer, she has held the foreign affairs portfolio for three years. That brief has placed her at the centre of Canada’s well-documented rows with New Delhi over allegations that Indian diplomats have carried out criminal activities including homicide in Canada, as well as with Beijing over its jailing of two Canadians apparently in retaliation for the arrest of a Chinese executive in Canada.

She has been criticised by some for her approach to those crises, potentially undermining any leadership bid, and a poll cited by CTV News gave her just 4 per cent support but as she told the Times: “It’s been the story of my life, you know, being underestimated.”

Anita Anand

Elected in 2019, the now Transport Minister quickly took on a pivotal role during the Covid pandemic, with responsibility as procurement minister for buying vaccines and PPE.

She then became Defence Minister, leading Canada’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as well as the government’s response to a review of sexual misconduct allegations within the military.

Her high-profile portfolios quickly led to speculation about her leadership potential. A 2023 cabinet reshuffle that saw her become president of the Treasury Board prompted rumours of a demotion due to her alleged ambitions.

Dominic LeBlanc

LeBlanc, a longtime Trudeau ally, has previously run for the leadership and reportedly has the support of at least a dozen Liberal MPs. He is widely regarded as a safe pair of hands, taking on tricky portfolios, including stepping in to replace Freeland as Finance Minister after her resignation.

He has also been at the forefront of Canada’s attempts to develop relations with the incoming Trump administration, accompanying Trudeau to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in November.

Like Trudeau, he is political royalty in Canada; his father was the former governor-general, MP and Senator Romeo LeBlanc. The families’ relationship goes back decades — LeBlanc babysat for Trudeau when they were younger and he was a pallbearer at the funeral of his father, the former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. LeBlanc chose not to run in the 2012 leadership race when Trudeau made his ambitions known.

Christy Clark

Clark, the former premier of British Columbia, has also emerged as a possible contender given her past experience — and her distance from Trudeau.

A fiscally conservative politician, Clark served as premier from 2011 to 2017 and leader of the BC Liberal party which is unaffiliated with the federal Liberals.

A strong critic of Trudeau, Clark posted on social media soon after the Prime Minister announced his resignation.

“As a lifelong Liberal I look forward to joining tens of thousands of Canadians to choose our next leader,” she wrote.

“This is the biggest opportunity in over a decade that we’ve had to grow our Party and welcome new Liberals – including Canadians concerned about the future of our country – let’s seize it.”

While Clark has governing credentials, her command of French is not strong compared with other candidates. Proficiency in both of Canada’s official languages is a customary prerequisite for the role of Prime Minister, while francophone Quebec has long been a stronghold for the party and a candidate with a linguistic weakness could be a political liability in the province.